Combating the Enrollment Cliff

The so-called “enrollment cliff,” a projected 15 percent decline in U.S. college students expected between 2025 and 2029 that will challenge a higher education sector already experiencing falling enrollments, may actually offer an unexpected opportunity—especially for international education.

The youth decline—due to a decrease in U.S. birth rates after the 2008 global recession as young couples postponed having children—is occurring as competing Anglophone host destinations such as Australia, Canada, and the United Kingdom are clamping down on international students even as the desire for a global education is growing. How U.S. colleges and universities respond to this unusual juxtaposition of circumstances may determine the path forward for international higher education.

Demographic Declines Across the Globe

In terms of contending with a demographic decline that threatens higher education enrollment, the United States is not alone in its plight.

For example, the number of 18-year-olds in Japan has nearly halved in about 35 years, from more than 2 million in 1990 to 1.1 million now. Japan’s education ministry officials expect a further decline to 880,000 by 2040, with the number of students in elementary and junior high schools falling to 9.6 million in 2020, down 1 million students from a decade earlier.

The country’s response?

In March last year, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced an ambitious goal of drawing 400,000 international students to Japan’s universities by 2033 to bolster campus enrollments. While the official response to this long-anticipated demographic decline is slow—Japan’s population has been falling for decades—a directive coming straight from the prime minister indicates the weight of this inbound student goal.

In terms of contending with a demographic decline that threatens higher education enrollment, the United States is not alone in its plight.

“It is important to make further investments in people to realize a new form of capitalism,” Kishida said at a government meeting.

Spain, too, has one of the world’s most rapidly aging populations, with the elderly representing 20 percent of the country’s population. In the last decade, Spain’s median age has risen from 40.8 years in 2012 to 44.7 years in 2021. By 2050, one in three Spaniards will be aged 65 or older.

Spain’s solution?

Like Japan, the country aims to mitigate a demographic decline by recruiting more international students. The number of inbound students enrolled in Spanish universities in the 2021–22 academic year reached a record high 224,080, including 170,222 students in degree programs. These levels represent a 27.8 percent increase from 2020–21, the year COVID-19 had the greatest effect on inbound students, and is higher than the levels achieved before the pandemic.

What’s opening a window for Japan and Spain, destinations that have traditionally drawn lower numbers of international students, are efforts in major Anglophone destinations such as Australia and Canada to restrict inbound numbers after hitting peak international enrollments. These policy changes are the result of declining public and political support in those countries for immigration amid increased concerns over affordable housing and living costs. (Read more about these policy changes and their effects in the October issue of International Educator.)

Are International Enrollments the Solution?

So, could the United States follow Japan’s and Spain’s examples and mitigate the enrollment cliff’s impact through international recruitment?

In terms of capacity, the answer is yes. International students made up only 5.6 percent of all college students in the United States in the 2023–24 academic year. This number lags in comparison with Australia, where international students made up a hefty 27.1 percent of the overall university student population in 2019–20, and the United Kingdom, where international students composed 24 percent of all university students in 2021–22.

In Canada, international student numbers are so large they are gauged as percentages of the entire country’s population— 2.5 percent of all residents in Canada in 2023—rather than against the overall student cohort. In Ontario, international students represented an even more of the province’s population—3.5 percent.

And it’s important to closely examine the United States’ recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, too. It’s notable that the country regained the 1 million international student mark in the latest Open Doors data from the Institute of International Education, largely recouping pandemic losses. But, before COVID-19, international enrollments had declined in the 2019–20 academic year—the first fall in years—due to high costs, visa-processing difficulties, an increased number of study options, and what was perceived to be an unwelcoming presidential administration.  

From Recovery to Growth

Recovery is one thing. Sustainable growth is another.

Perhaps equally important as the postpandemic bump, the recent rebound in the United States was largely due to a significant jump in Indian students pursuing graduate degrees rather than growth at the undergraduate level. In the United States, the number of Indian undergraduate students was only one-third of Chinese counterparts in 2022–23. To create durable progress, the United States needs to recruit a larger and more diverse population of undergraduate students, as those enrollments are generally lengthier and can also convert to graduate study.

To that end, in November 2023, the U.S. for Success Coalition was launched. The initiative is pushing for a cohesive international education strategy in the United States and is spearheaded by NAFSA and other leading education and advocacy organizations.

To create durable progress, the United States needs to recruit a larger and more diverse population of undergraduate students, as those enrollments are generally lengthier and can also convert to graduate study.

“International students are essential to the exchange of ideas and intercultural understanding on our campuses, in our communities, and in our workplaces, yet we do not make it easy for them to bring their talents here,” says Fanta Aw, NAFSA executive director and CEO. “With our partners in the U.S. for Success Coalition, we are working to advance policies and practices that would increase and diversify the community of international students in the United States and support their success at every step of their journey.”

For the first time in a while, recent policy changes involving international students suggest the U.S. government is largely supportive. For example, based on public feedback, last year the U.S. government expanded the fields of study qualifying an international student for the two-year STEM Optional Practical Training (OPT). This expansion of STEM-eligible fields of study casts a wider net to include landscape architecture, institutional research, developmental and adolescent psychology, and demography and population studies, among other subject areas.

There is on-the-ground evidence, too, that overall interest in international higher education is expanding, which could benefit the United States if we are prepared.

At the recent International Association for College Admission Counseling (International ACAC) conference, the host campus of Western University in London, Ontario, teemed with college admission counselors from across the globe. Once only a small affiliate of the U.S.-based National Association for College Admission Counseling, this international group now has more than 4,000 members from more than 140 countries and 1,500 unique institutions, both secondary and postsecondary.

There is on-the-ground evidence, too, that overall interest in international higher education is expanding, which could benefit the United States if we are prepared.

The surging demand for qualified college counselors is a result of increased global interest in studying overseas for a degree. At this most recent conference, 687 of the 1,457 total attendees were first-timer attendees.

“This has been a slow boil; it’s been brewing for a while,” says International ACAC President Wilson Lee, who is a counselor at the Singapore American School. “But I feel like the floodgates have been opened. There is a significant need and a recognition to really prioritize college counseling.”

Interest, too, goes beyond traditional source countries like China. Historically, high school counselors in China were at the forefront of sending students abroad, and universities from Anglophone countries were most interested in recruiting those outbound students. However, at the Ontario conference, counselors and universities hailed from points across the globe.

“There's been more intention in terms of the recruitment on location and getting students from different parts of the world,” Lee adds.

Unfulfilled Potential and How Strategy Outweighs Brand

In the past, brand has played a large role in how successfully U.S. institutions have been able to recruit internationally. Harvard University’s class of 2027 was 15.6 percent international, a 32 percent increase in share compared with the class of 2024. Among universities hosting the most international students, New York University, Northeastern University, and Columbia University are at the top, according to Open Doors.  

However, there are universities in the U.S. sector with marketable qualities where international students are underrepresented. Some universities are going to shrink through attrition if they don’t strategically consider how international students can soften the blow of declining domestic enrollments.

For example, Marquette University is tied for 86th in the US News & World Report ranking of best national universities.  It also ranks sixth nationally for job placement, according to Zippia.com, and is labeled “best value,” according to the Princeton Review. Only 2 percent of the class of 2024 was international.

Some universities are going to shrink through attrition if they don’t strategically consider how international students can soften the blow of declining domestic enrollments.

Marquette plans a $31 million budget reduction by 2031, due to factors such as inflation and lower enrollment. Elsewhere, the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee recently announced the closure of its Waukesha and Washington County branch campuses due to decreased enrollment and limited funding. The university had more than 23,000 students in fall 2022 but only 1,500 international enrollments in fall 2023.

Addressing the demographic decline in the United States through international enrollments won’t be easy. Filling vacant seats with international students requires dedicating financial and human resources to recruitment, marketing, and administration capacities. In today’s rankings-driven world, this is particularly challenging for institutions that aren’t considered selective nor globally branded.

However, there are examples where a targeted approach can lead to successful outcomes. At Lynn University in Boca Raton, Florida, being international has been part of the campus ethos since the private university was founded in 1962, according to Renee Loayza, the director of international admission. She adds that international recruitment must be tackled at both the institutional policy level as well as at the granular, program level.

“Strategic, top-down approaches are essential to overcoming challenges, including demographic shifts, global trends, and economic fluctuations,” she says. "But understanding what your university offers as well as knowing your audience is crucial too. We really believe in getting to know our applicants and the educators we work with to find the right-fit students.”

“Strategic, top-down approaches are essential to overcoming challenges, including demographic shifts, global trends, and economic fluctuations. But understanding what your university offers as well as knowing your audience is crucial too.” —Renee Loayza

Even with Lynn’s significant international student population—composing17 percent of its overall student cohort—China and India are not in the school’s top five markets.

“We’ve found success focusing on regions such as Latin America, the Caribbean, and Europe to build strong, personal relationships with students and parents,” Loayza says. “Having high school counselors and educators who know Lynn is crucial for navigating these complex markets.”

Softening the blow of the domestic enrollment cliff with international students also requires a mindset shift from seeing this population as dollar signs to valuing their contributions on campus and in the community. International offices can bring value to campus with ideas beyond international enrollment too—for instance, using study abroad as a recruitment tool for domestic students; dual degrees; transnational education; and continuing and professional education in a global context, like hosting international groups for short trainings.

Timing is Key in a Competitive Market

For the United States, the time to act is now. Already, the impact of the new restrictive immigration policies at other traditional host destinations is becoming evident. New data indicate that, in the first two quarters of 2024, international student applications to Canada dropped by 32 percent. In Australia, study visa grants are down by nearly one-third through April 2024.

In the United Kingdom, there’s been a big drop in international students wanting to study at UK universities. While fears that the United Kingdom would scrap its popular post-study work rights were not realized, the country has disallowed international students from bringing dependents with them on their UK student visa, aside from those on research postgraduate programs, a move widely seen as dampening sentiment.

But in today’s competitive market, the United States is no longer the “no-brainer” alternative for international students. The proliferation and growing appeal of nontraditional study destinations is becoming an increasingly weighty factor in students’ decision-making.

“In recent years, I’ve noticed a shift in target destinations, where the focus isn't just on the United States anymore,” says Lee. “There’s a heightened awareness about the many great education options available outside the United States.”

Loayza agrees. “Despite the United States still being a desirable destination for higher education, there is growing competition from countries like Spain,” she says. “These nations offer more welcoming immigration policies and appealing student experiences.”

In today’s competitive market, the United States is no longer the “no-brainer” alternative for international students.

And simply having room for more international students isn’t the only criterion to meet should a university consider boosting its global engagement efforts.

“We do believe there is ample capacity at U.S. colleges and universities to welcome international students,” says Aw. “However, institutions must be committed to creating the structures, systems, and environment for them to thrive. That starts with approaching international students with the right motivation and perspective—to see them as true assets to the campus, classroom, and community on a multitude of levels, not to simply plug a gap in enrollment or tuition dollars.”

Indeed, in a world where an aging demographic has become a concern for many countries, universities need to adopt a wider view about the role international students play—not only on campuses but also in society. As a result, solutions combating the enrollment cliff must be well thought out and outcomes earned.

Economist Nathan D. Grawe of Carleton College, author of The Agile College, sees the potential for mitigating the impact of the enrollment cliff by recruiting students from countries experiencing income growth. But he sees the need for strategy in today’s competitive environment.

“We shouldn’t think of it as a light switch, like everybody wants to study in the United States, so, if we need to, we’ll just flip that switch,” he says. “We’re going to have to work for it.”  •